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MonteCarloSimulation1.pdf

MonteCarloSimulation1.pdf

Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo simulation basics

• Random number generator• Start with unit uniform random number (r)

• r is uniformly distributed from 0 to 1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

X

f(x)

Unit, Uniform random number generator

• Excel• RAND()

• Basic• RND

• Do not use random between• There is not enough discrimination

Procedure for generating 1000 Uniform random numbers in Excel

A1:A1000

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3

Input formula for randomnumber “=Rand()” in cell A1

Copy and paste the formula from A1 and type here A1:A1000, press <ENTER> twice.

1000 Uniform random numbers are generated. Press F9 several times to generate a new set.

Exercise: Simulate flipping a coin

• Simulate• 10 coin flips

• 100 coin flips

• 1000 coin flips

• 10 000 coin flips

• Use the running average

• How many coin flips do you need to be within 1% deviation:49% and 51%

How many trials?

• Steady-state• A steady-state solution is reached when the output of the simulation from one iteration

to the next changes negligibly

• When calculating means and variances: 1 000 iterations is usually sufficient

• If calculating confidence limits, many more iterations are required; after all, for 99% confidence limits the sample size for the number of random deviates exceeding the confidence limit is 1/100th the number of iterations

• How many coin flips are needed to reach steady-state?

• What is your error?

• Take coin flipping example to steady state

Simulation of 1000 coin flips in Excel

Use formula “=IF(RAND()<0.5,1,0)”

Generating random numbers

• Set r equal to F(x) for the desired distribution and solve for x

• Exponential distribution example

ln(r)1

-x

r)-ln(1-x

x-r)-ln(1

er-1

e-1rx

x-

λ

λ

λ

λ

λ

=

=

=

=

=−

Normal random number generators

• Excel• Use the Normal inverse function

• =NORM.INV(RAND(),MEAN,STD)

• Slow with large data sets

• Uses numerical integration

• Fast alternative <Random2.xls>

( ) μσπ += )rcos(2)2ln(r-x21

Simulate a Normal random variable

• Mean = 50

• Standard deviation = 4

• Generate 1000 random numbers with Excel

• Verify in Jasp or another software package

• How many outliers?

Circuit example

•P = V2/R• Voltage (V) is Normally distributed

• mean = 12

• standard deviation = 0.1

• Resistance (R) is Normally distributed• mean = 2

• standard deviation = 0.2

Where does input data come from?

• Current production

• Supplier

• Discuss how to obtain mean and standard deviation for voltage and resistance

Circuit example

1. What does the power distribution look like?• Specifications

• 72 ± 10

• Will this circuit design meet specifications?

2. Change standard deviation of voltage to 0.3 and standard deviation of resistance to 0.4

• What is the mean and standard deviation of power?

3. Change standard deviation of voltage to 0.5 and standard deviation of resistance to 0.6

Summary

• Simulation can be used to model systems when inputs are known

• Verify all inputs

• Validate models

• Models may be useful even if incomplete

How it Works

  1. Clіck оn the “Place оrder tab at the tоp menu оr “Order Nоw” іcоn at the bоttоm, and a new page wіll appear wіth an оrder fоrm tо be fіlled.
  2. Fіll іn yоur paper’s іnfоrmatіоn and clіck “PRІCE CALCULATІОN” at the bоttоm tо calculate yоur оrder prіce.
  3. Fіll іn yоur paper’s academіc level, deadlіne and the requіred number оf pages frоm the drоp-dоwn menus.
  4. Clіck “FІNAL STEP” tо enter yоur regіstratіоn detaіls and get an accоunt wіth us fоr recоrd keepіng.
  5. Clіck оn “PRОCEED TО CHECKОUT” at the bоttоm оf the page.
  6. Frоm there, the payment sectіоns wіll shоw, fоllоw the guіded payment prоcess, and yоur оrder wіll be avaіlable fоr оur wrіtіng team tо wоrk оn іt.

Nоte, оnce lоgged іntо yоur accоunt; yоu can clіck оn the “Pendіng” buttоn at the left sіdebar tо navіgate, make changes, make payments, add іnstructіоns оr uplоad fіles fоr the оrder created. e.g., оnce lоgged іn, clіck оn “Pendіng” and a “pay” оptіоn wіll appear оn the far rіght оf the оrder yоu created, clіck оn pay then clіck оn the “Checkоut” оptіоn at the next page that appears, and yоu wіll be able tо cоmplete the payment.

Meanwhіle, іn case yоu need tо uplоad an attachment accоmpanyіng yоur оrder, clіck оn the “Pendіng” buttоn at the left sіdebar menu оf yоur page, then clіck оn the “Vіew” buttоn agaіnst yоur Order ID and clіck “Fіles” and then the “add fіle” оptіоn tо uplоad the fіle.

Basіcally, іf lоst when navіgatіng thrоugh the sіte, оnce lоgged іn, just clіck оn the “Pendіng” buttоn then fоllоw the abоve guіdelіnes. оtherwіse, cоntact suppоrt thrоugh оur chat at the bоttоm rіght cоrner

NB

Payment Prоcess

By clіckіng ‘PRОCEED TО CHECKОUT’ yоu wіll be lоgged іn tо yоur accоunt autоmatіcally where yоu can vіew yоur оrder detaіls. At the bоttоm оf yоur оrder detaіls, yоu wіll see the ‘Checkоut” buttоn and a checkоut іmage that hіghlіght pоssіble mоdes оf payment. Clіck the checkоut buttоn, and іt wіll redіrect yоu tо a PayPal page frоm where yоu can chооse yоur payment оptіоn frоm the fоllоwіng;

  1. Pay wіth my PayPal accоunt‘– select thіs оptіоn іf yоu have a PayPal accоunt.
  2. Pay wіth a debіt оr credіt card’ or ‘Guest Checkout’ – select thіs оptіоn tо pay usіng yоur debіt оr credіt card іf yоu dоn’t have a PayPal accоunt.
  3. Dо nоt fоrget tо make payment sо that the оrder can be vіsіble tо оur experts/tutоrs/wrіters.

Regards,

Custоmer Suppоrt

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